Abstract: In this paper, a novel approach to voltage collapse analysis using a probabilistic predictor-detector that relies on a conditioned probabilistic Quadratic Line Voltage Stability Index coined the q-LVSI and a moving average filter coined pq-LVSI for deductive analysis of power system network state. The proposed technique uses simple rules for logical analysis such as ratio-sum-of-thresholds, mean-value analysis and confidence conditioning to detect and estimate the presence of a collapsing signal from a sequence of several q-LVSI estimates and for several simulation runs. A moving average filter consisting of long-term and short-term predictions is used to filter and enhance the predictions from the resulting q-LVSI values prior to probabilistic logical analysis. The technique is applied to some interconnected buses of the Nigeria power system network in order to determine the interconnected........
Keywords: LVSI, Moving-Average, Power System, Voltage Collapse, Transmission line
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