iosr-JMCE   Volume-11 ~ Issue-5 ~ Sep-Oct 2014

Abstract: This document presents the methodology which was adopted to optimize the performance of cradle of a rocket launcher designed for military applications. The cradle was modelled and transient analysis was conductedusing ANSYS with various combinations of design parameters using standard orthogonal arrays as proposed by Taguchi.Design variables like plate thicknesses are optimized so as to reduce the weight while keeping the equivalent stresses and deformation incurred within the limits.

Keywords: DOE, finite element analysis, frame,Taguchi, weight optimization

[1] Tushar M. Patel, Dr. M. G. Bhatt, Harshad K. Patel, Parametric Optimization of Eicher 11.10 Chassis Frame for Weight Reduction Using FEA-DOE Hybrid Modeling, IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering (IOSR-JMCE) e-ISSN: 2278-1684,p-ISSN: 2320-334X, Volume 6, Issue 2 (Mar. - Apr. 2013), PP 92-100

[2] Stephanie Fraley, Mike Oom, Ben Terrien, John Zalewski, Design of experiments via taguchi methods: orthogonal arrays, 2007

[3] Madhu Kiran Karanam, Seetharama Manthri, Chakradhari Bajpai, Weight Optimization of converter housing using Altair Hyperstudy, Altair Technology Conference, 2013

[4] Wen-Hsien Hsua, Ching-Kong Chaoa, Hsi-Ching Hsub, Jinn Lin b, Ching-Chi Hsua, Parametric study on the interface pullout strength of the vertebral body replacement cage using FEM-based Taguchi methods, Medical Engineering & Physics 31, 2009, 287–294. [5] Bappa Acherjee, Arunanshu S. Kuar, Souren Mitra, Dipten Misra, Modeling of laser transmission contour welding process using FEA and DoE, Optics & Laser Technology 44-5, 2012 1281-1289

Abstract: Ride comfort and the handling capabilities of vehicle are mainly determined by its suspension system, which transmits the forces between the vehicle and the road. In recent years, using active control mechanisms for design of active suspension system has attracted considerable attention. The main concept is use an active suspension to reduce the vibration energy of the vehicle body induced by the road excitation, while keeping the vehicle stability within an acceptable limit. The present paper aims at providing a picture - as complete as possible of the present state of the art in the active suspension control field in terms of ride comfort and road-holding performance evaluation. This paper discussed all the design literature review for active suspension systems for vehicle. This paper also deals with a number of control aspects and some of the important practical considerations.

Keywords: Active vehicle suspension; Fuzzy logic control; Preview control

[1]. E. M., Elbeheiry, D. C., Karnopp, "Optimal Control of Vehicle Random Vibration with Constrained Suspension Deflection" Journal of Sound and Vibration, 189 (5): 1996, 547-564.
[2]. M. A. Aref Soliman, Nouby M. Ghazaly, Fatma S. Kadry "Parameters Affecting Truck Ride Comfort" SAE Technical Paper 2014-01-0147, 2014, DOI:10.4271/2014-01-0147.
[3]. N. Al-Holou, T. Lahdhiri, D. Joo, J. Weaver, and F. Al-Abbas, "Sliding mode neural network inference fuzzy logic control for active suspension systems," IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst., vol. 10, no. 2, Apr. 2002. pp. 234–246.
[4]. Li Hongyi, Yu Jinyong, Chris Hilton, and Honghai Liu "Adaptive Sliding-Mode Control for Nonlinear Active Suspension Vehicle Systems Using T–S Fuzzy Approach" IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, VOL. 60, NO. 8, AUGUST 2013.
[5]. R. Alkhatib, G. Jazar, Nakhaie, M.F. Golnaraghi, Optimal design of passive linear suspension using genetic algorithm, Journal of Sound and Vibration 275, 2004, 665–691

Abstract: The primary step in the construction of sub- base and base course materials is the identification and selection of suitable borrow pits. This is done by obtaining samples from economically feasible borrow pits and testing them in the laboratory.1The laboratory compaction with varying compactive effort viz: British Standard (BS) compaction with 2.5kg rammer, repeated on 3 layers of 61 blows each, West African Standard (WAS) compaction with 4.5kg rammer repeated on 5 layers of 25 blows each; and Heavy British Standard (HBS) compaction with 4.5kg rammer repeated on 5 layers of 61 blows each on samples from locations 1 and2 respectively were conducted. Focus was on Unyeghe residualsoils from two distinct borrow-pits stabilized with river sand and ordinaryPortland cement. In all cases, the rammers fell from a height of 450mm above the top of mould. The unsoakedCBRvalues obtained with BS and WAS compactions,34% and 46% respectively,were far below the recommended minimum of 35% and 80% for sub-base and base courses applications by FMW & H2(1997) specification.The HBS compaction tends to simulate the actual field condition by limiting the air voids to about 5%. An interesting feature observed is that the highest CBR and MDD values obtained, (132%, 134% and 2100kg/m3, 2010kg/m3) occurred at lower moisture contents (7.6%, 9.4%) at both locations. On application of the BS and WAS compactive effort to OPC stabilized Unyeghe residual soil samples the soaked CBRand MDD values at optimal level(124%, 132% and 2000kg/m3 , 2060kg/m3 ), showed comparative improvement. This result could not be justified only by direct influence attributable to the stabilizing materials only. It could thus be concluded that both the California Bearing Ratio (CBR) and Maximum Dry Density (MDD) while not being inherent properties of the soil material, are predicated on the applied compactive effort. Hence, the more the soil material is compacted, the greater the value of cohesion and shearing resistance. Multiple nonlinear regressed models were developed for the purpose of prediction and optimization of Unyeghe residual soils with various stabilizing parameters. Keywords: Compaction, Stabilization, Residual Soil, River Sand, Cement

[1]. Garber, N.J. and Hoel, L.A. [1999] "Soil Engineering For Highway Design" 817-866 Fe Federal Ministry of Works & Housing, General Specifications (Roads and Bridges), vol. 11, 1997. deral Ministry of Works & Housing, General Specifications (Roads and Bridges), vol. 11, 1997.
[2]. Budhu, M. [1999] Soil Mechanics And Foundations. John Wiley & Sons Inc. N.Y., U.S.A.
[3]. Al-Aghbari, M.Y. and Dutta, R.K. [2005] Suitability of Desert Sand Cement Mixes for Base Courses in Highway Pavements. Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, Vol. 10, 2005, Bundle D.
[4]. Casagrande, L. [1952] "Electro-Osmotic Stabilization of Soils" Journal, Boston Society of Civil Engineers, vol.39, p51.
[5]. Deboucha, S., Hashim, R. and Alwi, A. [2008] "Engineering Properties of Stabilized Tropical Peat Soils" Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering.

Abstract: The wish bone suspension system is one of the most used suspension systems of automobile vehicles. Its dynamic behavior directly affects the safety, performance and, noise level.The lower and upper arms of wish bone are the main critical elements. This paper describes the analysis of upper arm of wishbone using softwares namely Catia and Hypermesh. The objectives of this study are to characterize the dynamic behavior and to investigate the fatigue life of upper suspension arm. Control arm(Upper arm) is designed in 3d modeling Catia software and then imported in to Altair Hypermesh for finite element modeling.The solutions of dynamic analysis obtained .The overall aim of the paper is to estimate the fatigue life of control arm. The results, thus obtained, can significantly reduce the cost and time to market, improve product reliability and customer confidence.

Keywords: Suspension system, Control arm, Fatigue life, Hypermesh.

[1]. Mohd Rizal Bin Ahmad and Manap, 2007, "Simulation and Experimental Analysis of an Active Vehicle Suspension System,"Master Thesis. University Teknologi Malaysia.
[2]. Adizul Ahmad, 2005, "An Observer Design for Active Suspension System," Master Thesis. University Teknologi Malaysia.
[3]. Altair Engineering. "OptiStruct 7.0 User's Guide." HyperWorks 2012.
[4]. Altair Engineering. "Altair Motion View: Pre-and Post Processing for Multi-Body Dynamics, Volume I." HyperWorks Training Manual, 2004.
[5]. Altair Engineering. "Altair HyperMesh: Introduction to FEA: Pre-ProcessingVolume I." HyperWorks Training Manual, 2004.

Abstract: Land use planning is systematic assessment of land and water potential. Its purpose is to select and put into practice those land uses, that will best meet the need of the people while safe guarding resources for the future. Number of researchers have been established the applicability of Remote sensing and Geographical Information system to solve problems in agricultural related to land use planning. The review related to 'Land use Planning' using remote sensing and GIS is discussed in the present paper.

Keywords: Remote Sensing, GIS, Land use Planning

[1]. Andy Bhermana, Bambang Hendro Sunarminto, Sri Nuryani Hidayah Utami and Totok Gunawan (2013). "The Combination Of Land Resource Evaluation Approach And Gis Application To Determine Prime Commodities For Agricultural Land Use Planning At Developed Area – A Case Study Of Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia". ARPN Journal of Agricultural and Biological Science Vol.8, (12) pp. 771-784.Note that the journal title, volume number and issue number are set in italics.
[2]. Anita K. Prakash; I. V. Muralikrishna; P. K. Mishra; and R. V. R. K. Chalam (2007)."Deciding Alternative Land Use Options in a Watershed Using GIS" Journal Of Irrigation And Drainage Engineering, (Asce) 133: pp.162-174.
[3]. Arabinda Sharma · Kamlesh N. Tiwari · P. B. S. Bhadoria (2011). "Effect of land use land cover change on soil erosion potential in an agricultural watershed". Journal of Environ Monit Assess (springer) Vol, 173: pp. 789–801.
[4]. Arvind Bijalwan, S. L. Swamy , Chandra Mohan Sharma Neeraj Kumar Sharma, A.K. Tiwari (2010). "Land-use, biomass and carbon estimation in dry tropical forest of Chhattisgarh region in India using satellite remote sensing and GIS". Journal of Forestry Research, © Northeast Forestry University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 21(2): pp. 161−170.
[5]. Ashok Mishra & S. Kar & V. P. Singh (2007), "Prioritizing Structural Management by Quantifying the Effect of Land Use and Land Cover on Watershed Runoff and Sediment Yield". Journal of Water Resource Management (springer) Vol. 21, pp 1899–1913

Abstract: Hydroponics in Greek language means "Agriculture without soil" which means in hydroponics just water is essential to sustain the growth of plants and provide them a strong medium for nutrient transportation. It is well known that as the urbanization of the world taking place, the total net sowing area of agriculture decreasing rapidly due to illegal encroachment of builders and industrialists which poses a question mark on food security as well as environment balance and pollution. The more urbanization takes place the more incidents of encroachment of agricultural fields are happening rapidly which is unchecked till now because of the rising rate of population growth in case of the world in general and India in particular. It's time to think innovative as well as constructive in the direction of creating space for agriculture in manmade concrete jungles such as high rising buildings, mammoth size bungalows, congested societies, unhygienic and irregularly populated colonies and such spaces like this in urban areas, metro cities as well as small towns so that the high ending goals of food security as well as environment protection can be achieved together. Hydroponics could solve this problem and can help to achieve these two ambitious goals in single go. As hydroponics is a technique which doesn't require actual natural soil or humus to sustain the plant growth, rather it requires electronically controlled environment along with water solution of exact nutrient composition for exact type of crop and this plant can be installed anywhere. Now in this research, the implementation of controlled hydroponics is described over the roof of high rising buildings as these spaces are not used for any of commercial activity and easy to sustain the growth of hydroponics plant.

Keywords: Greek, Agriculture, Hydroponics, Controlled, Encroachment, Urban, Ambitious, Technique, Congested, Environment, Nutrient, Food security, etc.

[1]. MUNÕZ, Héctor. 2005. Hydroponics Home-based Vegetable Production System Manual. IICA, Georgetown, Guyana
[2]. ECHEVERRIA, Laura Perez. 2008. Hydroponics for the Home. IICA, San Jose, Costa Rica
[3]. ROBERTO, Keith. Fourth edition. How-To-Hydroponics.
[4]. Hydroponic Food Production. 2001. H.M. Resh. Woodbridge Press Publishing Company, P.O. Box 209, Santa Barbara, CA, 93160. ISBN 0-88007-222-9
[5]. Hydroponic Gardening. 1991. L. Dalton and R. Smith. Cobb/Horwood Publications, Aukland, New Zealand.
[6]. Hydroponic Home Food Gardens. 1992. H.M. Resh. Woodbridge Press Publishing Company, Santa Barbara, CA, 93160. ISBN 0-88007-178-8

Abstract: In recent years, companies have strengthened their supply agreements, and even the management of their inventories. To this aim, a particular VMI policy, known as Consignment Stock (CS) represents an interesting strategy to stock monitoring and control for both the buyer and the supplier, and it has been progressively considered and introduced in several companies. CS has been previously analyzed for single vendor single buyer case (1986). In this project, we have analyzed analytical model for single vendor multi buyer CS policy. Four types of models, basic CS model, CS with delay, CS with delay with information sharing; CS with crashing lead time. The main objective of this work is to optimize the Joint Total Economic cost of each model. Analytical model is solved with enumeration technique up to five buyers. For more than five buyers, solving analytical model with complete enumeration becomes computationally expensive. To overcome this problem Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSO) is proposed for finding optimum for the case of more than five buyers. PSO model is developed and can solve more than ten buyers. So Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSO) is used for the optimization of the above four models. A generalized C program has been written to implement the above problem using Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSO).

Keywords: Numerical approach, Total cost, Taguchi,

[1] Chidurala Srinivas & C. S. P. Rao(2010), Optimization of supply chains for single-vendor–multibuyer consignment stock policy with genetic algorithm.
[2] Angeline, P. J. (1998), Using Selection to Improve Particle Swarm Optimization, IEEE International Conference on Evolutionary Computation, Anchorage, Alaska, May 4-9, 1998.
[3] Banerjee, A.1986. A joint economic lot-size model for purchaser and vendor. Decision Sciences 17,292–311.
[4] Banerjee, A.,Banerjee,S.(1994).A coordinated order-up-to inventory control policy for a single supplier and multiple buyers using electronic data interchange. International Journal of Production Economics 35,85–91.
[5] Ben-Daya,M.,Hariga,M.(2004).Integrated single vendor single buyer model with stochastic demand and variable lead time. International Journal of ProductionEconomics92,75–80

Abstract: Cutoff Wall indicated is a thin watertight wall of clay or concrete (concrete in this case) built up from a cutoff trench to reduce seepage through any natural water passages–joints and cleavage planes in the rock massif or passages between ground constituents such as boulders and cobbles and through existing granular material such as sands and gravels and deepen the flow lines to make them pass beyond the dam area. It is also known as core wall. The use of diaphragm walls as cut-off or seepage barriers or as structural elements has been on the civil engineering and geotechnical scene in a relatively widespread manner since just after the Second World War.

Key Words: watertight, diaphragm walls, seepage barriers, structural elements, world war.

[1]. Handman, F.W.A., 1929. "The Arapuni (New Zealand) hydro-electric power development". Minutes of Proceedings Institution of Civil Engineers Vol 228 (Part 2), pp230-257, Paper No 4739.
[2]. Simpson, D.E., Phipps, M., Ressi, A.L., 2006. "Constructing a cutoff wall in front of Walter F George Dam in 100 feet of water", Hydro Review, Volume 25, No 1, March 2006, HCI Publications.
[3]. IS -9556,1980.
[4]. Bruce, D.A. (2000 and 2001). "An introduction to the deep mixing method as used in geotechnical applications." Prepared by Geosystems, L.P., Document No. FHWA-RD-99-138, March, 143 p
[5]. Bruce, D.A. and S. Stefani. (1996). "Rehabilitation of Beaver Dam: A Major Seepage Cut-off Wall," Ground Engineering, Vol. 29, No. 5, June, pp. 40-45.

Abstract: Surge Shaft is one of the essential components in hydro power construction involving long running HRT (Head Raise Tunnel )so also with moderate to high head. It is generally a reinforced concrete lined, circular, open to sky or underground (but connected with tunnel opening to atmosphere), with a orifice slab at bottom where the HRT terminates and pressure shaft(s) (PS) begin(s), also with the controlling gate(s) for PS(s). Function of the surge shaft is to negotiate the sudden surge generally know as water hammer pressure generated due to rapid fluctuations in the flow of water through the tunnels. Slip form is a self-contained formwork system that may require little crane time during construction. It is an element used in method of vertically extruding a reinforced concrete section. In this construction method, concrete is poured into a continuously moving form. Slip forming[1] enables continuous, non-interrupted, cast-in-place "flawless" (i.e. no joints) construction which have superior performance characteristics to piecewise construction using discrete form elements.

Key-words: Essential component, Sudden surge, Non interrupted, Discrete form.

[1] Betterham, R. G. 1980 . Slip-form concrete, Longman, New York. Halpin, D. W., and Riggs, L. S. 1992 Planning and analysis of construction operations, Wiley, New York.
[2] Hanna, A. S. 1998 . Concrete formwork systems, Marcel Dekker, New York.
[3] Hurd, M. K. 1990 . "Self-lifting forms shape building cores." Concr. Constr., 35 2 , 215–219.
[4] Hurd, M. K. 2005 . Formwork for concrete, 7th Ed., American Concrete Institute, New York
[5] Ratary, R. T. 1980 . Handbook of temporary structures in construction,McGraw-Hill, New York

Abstract: An evaluation on the use of spent foundry sand (SFS) in the production of concrete has been carried out. The material SFS, was properly characterized and used in proportions of 0 %, 10 %, 20 %, 30 % and 40 % by weight of fine aggregate and cured under laboratory conditions for up to 90 days. The results obtained showed that the SFS used satisfied the ACI Code of practices on the use of SFS, and also has pozzolanic properties. The work also confirmed that SFS can substantially reduce the effects of absorption in concrete to about 8 % to 28 %, when cured for 90 days and at different replacement levels. This is good for durability of concrete. However, the compressive strength decreased as the replacement levels increased and performed optimally at 10 % replacement. Linear regression models developed on the experimental data are significant and adequate.

Keywords: Spent foundry sand, Water absorption, Compressive strength, Pozzolan, Linear regression

[1]. FHWA (2004). "Foundry sand facts for Civil Engineers. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, FHWA – IF – 2004.
[2]. Siddique, R. and Sandhu, RK (2013)."Properties of SCC incorporating WFS. Leonardo Journal of Sciences, Issue 23, 105 – 124.
[3]. Khatib, JM; Baig S; Bougara, A and Booth, C. (2010). "Foundry sand utilization in concrete production. The University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Centre for By-products Utilization, 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Construction Materials and Technologies, June 28 – 30, Università Politecinia delle Marche, Ancona, Italy.
[4]. Saveria, M, Daniela S, and Tittarelli F. (2010)."Used foundry sand in cement mortars and concrete production". The openWaste Management Journal 3, 18 – 25.
[5]. Kumar DP, Eswaramoorthi and Basil B (2014)."Strength characteristics of structural concrete elements using foundry sand. IJERA, Trends and Recent Advances in Civil Engineering, 24th – 25th, January.

Abstract: Static analysis of a functionally graded (FG) simply-supported beam subjected to a uniformly distributed load has been investigated by using Ritz method within the framework of Timoshenko and the higher order shear deformation beam theories. The material properties of the beam vary continuously in the thickness direction according to the power-law form. Trial functions denoting the transverse, the axial deflections and the rotation of the cross-sections of the beam are expressed in trigonometric functions. In this study, the effect of various material distributions on the displacements and the stresses of the beam are examined. Numerical results indicate that stress distributions in FG beams are very different from those in isotropic beams.
Keywords: Beams, functionally graded materials, Timoshenko beam theory, the higher order shear deformation theory,

[1]. Sankar B.V., An elasticity solution for functionally graded beams. Composites Sciences and Technology, 61(5), 689-696, 2001.
[2]. Chakraborty A., Gopalakrishnan S, Reddy J.N., A new beam finite element for the analysis of functionally graded materials.
International Journal of Mechanical Sciences, 45(3), 519-539, 2003.
[3]. Chakraborty A., Gopalakrishnan S., A spectrally formulated finite element for wave propagation analysis in functionally graded
beams. International Journal of Solids and Structures, 40(10), 2421-2448, 2003.
[4]. Aydogdu M., Taskin V., Free vibration analysis of functionally graded beams with simply supported edges. Materials & Design,
28(5), 1651-1656, 2007.11
[5]. Zhong Z., Yu T., Analytical solution of a cantilever functionally graded beam. Composites Sciences and Technology, 67(3-4), 481-
488, 2007.

Abstract: Machining operation is affected by some factors, either positively or negatively such as coolant, tool geometry, type of tool, tool angle, depth of cut, cutting speed, size chip, cutting rate, type workpiece, etc. This experiment was designed to turn five pieces of mild steels rod of 22mm in diameter to a diameter of 20mm as the targeted final diameter of each work piece. The parameters used for the experiment were coolant, depth of cut, feed rate, and cutting speed, the outcome to be tested were dimensional accuracy. Two values were assigned to each of the parameters except coolant which was maintained at 15cl throughout the experiment and cutting speed has four values. A 2k factorial design with 5 parameters was adopted, of which some of the factors affected the dimensional accuracy seriously. Comparing the tabulated value of fo with the calculated values it was find out that f0.01, 1, 32 = 7.50. So it mean that the Ho hypothesis is rejected in the case of B, C, D, E, AC, BE, CE, DE, ABC, ABE, ADE, BCD, BCE, ACDE, and such they have no significant effect on the result since the tabulated value is less than the calculated value. In the case of others the null hypothesis is accepted and so their effect is significant on the result.

Key words: dimensional, parameter, factorial, accuracy, mild steel, machining

[1]. Altin, A., Gokkaya, H., and Nalbant, M., (2007) ―The effect of cutting speed and cutting tool geometry on machinability properties of nickelbase
[2]. Inconel 718 superalloys‖, Materials and Design, Vol. 28, No.4, pp.1334-1338.
[3]. Fang, N., and Fang, G. (2007) ―Theoretical and experimental investigations of finish machining with a rounded edge tool‖, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, Vol.191, pp.331-334.
[4]. Groover, Mikell, P. (2007). ―Theory of Metal Machining‖. Fundamentals of Modern Manufacturing (3rd Ed.). John Wiley and Sons, Inc. pp. 491-504.
[5]. Hughes, J. I.; Sharman, A. R. and Ridgwayk, C. (2006). ―The effect of cutting Tool Material and Edge Geometry on Tool Life and Workpiece Surface Integrity‖.

Abstract: This paper mainly deals with analysis of composite materials using Multi – continuum method. The fiberssuch as carbon fiber, glass fiber and Kevlar are mainly used. Ansys and Autodesk composite analysis is used to analysis all the fiber reinforced composites. In this paper simple composites and hybrid fiber composites were analyzed and at the end came up with optimized hybrid composite that is best suited for the given load condition.

Keywords: FEM, fiber, composites, Multi continuum method, Glass, Carbon, Kevlar, analysis, micromechanics

[1]. Standard Test Method for Tensile Properties of Polymer Matrix Composite Materials, vol. 15.03, West Conshohocken, PA, 2003.
[2]. E. E. Nelson, Jason A. Gies and Ray S. Fertig III, "The Virtues of Multicontinuum Mechanics for Composites," 50th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference.
[3]. M. Garnich and A.C. Hansen, "A Multicontinuum Approach to Structural Analysis of Linear Viscoelastic," J ApplMech, vol. 64, 1997.
[4]. R. Hill, "Elastic properties of reinforced solids: Some theoretical principles," Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of solids, vol. 11, pp. 357-372, 1963.
[5]. Y. Nakasone, S. Yoshimoto and T. A. Stolarski, Engineering Analysis With ANSYS Software, Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann, 2006.

Abstract: Ergonomics is one of the major point of concern in the manufacturing of any product or commodity in any industries or workshops. It deals with the study of men machine and work environment for achieving optimal performance without causing any physiological and psychological discomfort. This paper presents an overview of the situations in workplaces (industries; workshops etc.) which would assist in user friendlyenvironment and hence will lead to good scale of PRODUCTION

[1]. Wikipedia:Human factors and Ergonomics.
[2]. Industrial Engineering And Management by Dr.B.Kumar
[3]. The publication Work Practices Guide forManual Lifting is available from NIOSH.

Abstract: The main objective of this study is to help the project managers for making better informed decisions in the form of corrective and/or preventive actions through developing a probabilistic time forecasting model, which is generated on the basis of the beta distribution as a curve fitting technique, and to provide a better basis for the schedule performance control and for the risk management of on-going projects. Four projects has been generated and used to validate the time prediction generated from the all models through the different periods of actual completion. The beta forecasting model (BFM) has been programmed in a graphical user interface (GUI) for Matlab (R2009a) and it can be implemented on all types of projects. A comparative study reveals that the BFM provides much more accurate forecasts than those are generated from the conventional methods, forecasts the completion dates on the basis of analyzing the summary of project-level data, and has accurate forecasts as the critical path method (CPM) does.

Keywords: Beta; Earned Value; Forecasting; Normal; Probabilistic

[1]. Kim, B. C.; and Reinschmidt, K. F. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Duration Using Bayesian Inference and the Beta Distribution." J. Constr. Eng. Manage, 135(3), 2009, 178–186.
[2]. Kim, B. C.; and Reinschmidt, K. F. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Duration Using Kalman Filter and the Earned Value Method." J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 130(1), 2010, 25–32.
[3]. Vandevoorde, S.; and Vanhoucke, M. "A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods Using Earned Value Metrics." Int. J. Proj. Manage., 24(4), 2006, 289–302.
[4]. Christensen, D. S.; and Heise, S. R.. "Cost Performance Index Stability." National Contract Management Journal, 25 (1), 1993, 7–15.
[5]. Zwikael, O.; Globerson, S.; and Raz, T. "Evaluation of Models for Forecasting the Final Cost of a Project." Proj. Manage. J., 31 (1), 2000, 53–57.